7
CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED     ANNUAL REPORT
Indonesian nickel supply – which has grown rapidly with the 
build-out of high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plants to produce 
mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and rotary kiln-electric furnaces 
to produce nickel pig iron (NPI) – has fundamentally changed the 
structure of the global nickel market. This capacity expansion 
was driven by a multi-billion-dollar investment by China following 
Indonesian government-imposed ore export bans which drove the 
nickel market into oversupply and kept nickel prices subdued over 
the past few years.
For most of 2025, nickel prices were range-bound, trading around 
US$15,000/t with the market remaining oversupplied. The nickel 
price rose sharply in late 2025 (up ~30% from mid-December 2025 
to mid-January 2026) following a series of announcements by the 
Indonesian Government indicating they would introduce measures to 
restrain supply and help support nickel prices.
The Indonesian Government has recognized that current nickel 
prices are insufficient to support the long-term profitability of its 
domestic industry, with government revenues under significant 
pressure at prices below US$16,000/t.
At the same time, production costs in Indonesia have been steadily 
increasing for some time – driven by ore depletion, declining grades 
and the implementation of stricter environmental standards – 
further compressing margins across the sector. 
The current conflict in the Middle East has also driven a sharp 
increase in sulphur prices – a key input for HPAL nickel production – 
placing additional pressure on Indonesian nickel producer margins. 
With Indonesia now accounting for more than 60% of global nickel 
supply, it is effectively positioned as a marginal price setter. 
The Indonesian Government has begun actively managing supply to 
support a more sustainable pricing environment – which is widely 
recognized in Indonesia as being above US$18,000/t.
Supply discipline is primarily being implemented through RKAB 
ore mining quotas, alongside new policies aimed at encouraging 
downstream processing and further vertical integration – measures 
that are expected to moderate future nickel supply growth. 
Reflecting these dynamics, most market analysts now forecast 
long-term prices in the range of ~US$18,000-20,000/t ($8.15-9.00/lb). 
Against this backdrop, Centaurus is targeting development of the 
JNP into a strengthening nickel market, with tightening supply and 
improving prices supporting and enhancing Jaguar’s already robust 
financial returns.
LME Nicket (US$/T)
JAN 25
FEB 25
MAR 25
APR 25
MAY 25
JUN 25
JUL 25
AUG 25
SEP 24
OCT 25
NOV 25
DEC 25
JAN 26
FEB 26
MAR 26
Figure 2: LME Nickel Price (January 2025 – March 2026)    Source: LME
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000

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